Shane van Gisbergen takes pole in Mexico City as NASCAR hits Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez. See full grid, odds & betting predictions for Sunday’s race.
2025 NASCAR Viva Mexico 250 post-qualifying preview & betting picks
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The NASCAR Cup Series makes its long-awaited debut at Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez — and street-racing ace Shane van Gisbergen (SVG) has stunned the field by taking pole in his first Mexico City qualifying session.
The Kiwi dialled in a blistering lap late in Group B and then sealed the deal in the final round of qualifying, laying down a 1:32.776 flier that couldn’t be touched, with the top online sportsbooks making him a +225 favorite.
It marks SVG’s second Cup Series pole of the season and confirms Trackhouse’s road course setup is dialled in. Daniel Suárez delivered a solid lap to put his Chevrolet 10th on the grid — still a strong showing in front of his home crowd and a potential springboard for Sunday’s race.
Tyler Reddick will roll off from P22 after a disappointing qualifying run despite showing elite long-run pace in practice. His Toyota had great balance through the Esses and good drive off the final corner — traits that could still put him in contention if the race plays long and green. Christopher Bell and Michael McDowell both start inside the top six and bring proven road course pedigree.
Defending Cup champ Ryan Blaney qualified 18th, while Kyle Larson will launch from P6 and William Byron starts 27th after a messy final lap. Chase Elliott will roll off 12th and has looked more confident in braking zones this weekend. Ross Chastain impressed in qualifying with a strong third-place effort and has the pace to contend — the key will be avoiding drama through the tight opening corners.
Joey Logano starts 9th and skipped the final round of qualifying after brushing the wall, but his Ford showed top-10 potential on older tires. Martin Truex Jr. struggled in the final session and will launch from 36th — not ideal, but with his road course experience, he’s one to watch if pit strategy flips the order.
Van Gisbergen, McDowell, and Elliott all showed encouraging long-run speed during race sims, and with track limits, brake fade, and tire management set to play major roles late, patience and precision will likely win the day in Mexico City.
2025 NASCAR Mexico City Betting Odds
- Shane van Gisbergen – +225
- Ross Chastain – +825
- Ty Gibbs – +950
- Kyle Larson – +1150
- Michael McDowell – +1400
- Chase Elliott – +1500
- Ryan Preece – +1800
- Christopher Bell – +1800
- Daniel Suarez – +2200
- AJ Allmendinger – +2200
- Tyler Reddick – +2200
- William Byron – +2200
- Chris Buescher – +2500
- Kyle Busch – +2800
- Todd Gilliland – +3300
- Chase Briscoe – +3300
- Austin Cindric – +3300
- Carson Hocevar – +4000
- Joey Logano – +4000
- Ryan Blaney – +5000
- Alex Bowman – +5000
- Austin Dillon – +8000
- Justin Haley – +8000
- Erik Jones – +8000
- Josh Berry – +8000
- Riley Herbst – +8000
- Brad Keselowski – +8000
- Zane Smith – +8000
- Ryan Truex – +10000
- Katherine Legge – +10000
- Cody Ware – +10000
- Ty Dillon – +10000
- John H. Nemechek – +10000
- Cole Custer – +10000
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr – +10000
- Noah Gragson – +10000
- Bubba Wallace – +10000
More odds available at Stake.com.
NASCAR Mexico City 2025 Betting Predictions
Shane van Gisbergen to win
SVG starts on pole and has looked in total control across practice and qualifying. His road course pedigree, especially in tight and technical layouts, makes him the man to beat. Trackhouse brought the right setup, and if he leads early, it’s going to be hard to catch him. Clean air and restart execution will be key, but this one’s his to lose at +225 odds with Stake.com.
Shane van Gisbergen to win
Michael McDowell top five finish
McDowell starts from the second row and always delivers on road courses, especially when braking and throttle control are critical. His qualifying time was strong, but his long-run consistency is what really stands out. If this race stays green late, his experience and patience should carry him forward. There’s great value here at +150 with Stake.com for a known road specialist.
Michael McDowell top five finish
Tyler Reddick top 10 finish
Reddick’s Toyota looked sharp all weekend and he starts inside the top five with clear track ahead. He was fastest in practice over long runs, and his road course pace has improved markedly since 2023. Barring or strategy chaos, he should be firmly planted in the lead pack. A safe play at -156.25 odds with Stake.com for multis and single bets alike.
Tyler Reddick top 10 finish
NASCAR Cup Mexico City Starting Grid
| Pos | No | Driver | Team | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 88 | Shane van Gisbergen | Trackhouse Chevrolet | 1:32.776 |
| 2 | 60 | Ryan Preece | Stewart-Haas Ford | 1:32.840 |
| 3 | 1 | Ross Chastain | Trackhouse Chevrolet | 1:32.849 |
| 4 | 54 | Ty Gibbs | JGR Toyota | 1:32.921 |
| 5 | 71 | Michael McDowell | Front Row Motorsports Chevrolet | 1:32.974 |
| 6 | 5 | Kyle Larson | Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet | 1:32.984 |
| 7 | 34 | Todd Gilliland | Front Row Motorsports Ford | 1:33.020 |
| 8 | 16 | AJ Allmendinger | Kaulig Racing Chevrolet | 1:33.022 |
| 9 | 22 | Joey Logano | Team Penske Ford | 1:33.049 |
| 10 | 99 | Daniel Suárez | Trackhouse Chevrolet | 1:33.061 |
| 11 | 8 | Kyle Busch | Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet | 1:33.084 |
| 12 | 9 | Chase Elliott | Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet | 1:33.108 |
| 13 | 21 | Josh Berry | Wood Brothers Racing Ford | 1:33.158 |
| 14 | 43 | Erik Jones | Legacy Motor Club Toyota | 1:33.194 |
| 15 | 35 | Riley Herbst | Rick Ware Racing Toyota | 1:33.201 |
| 16 | 17 | Chris Buescher | RFK Racing Ford | 1:33.206 |
| 17 | 7 | Justin Haley | Rick Ware Racing Chevrolet | 1:33.234 |
| 18 | 12 | Ryan Blaney | Team Penske Ford | 1:33.247 |
| 19 | 19 | Chase Briscoe | Stewart-Haas Racing Toyota | 1:33.257 |
| 20 | 2 | Austin Cindric | Team Penske Ford | 1:33.319 |
| 21 | 3 | Austin Dillon | Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet | 1:33.342 |
| 22 | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 23XI Racing Toyota | 1:33.345 |
| 23 | 77 | Carson Hocevar | Spire Motorsports Chevrolet | 1:33.351 |
| 24 | 38 | Zane Smith | Front Row Motorsports Ford | 1:33.365 |
| 25 | 23 | Bubba Wallace Jr. | 23XI Racing Toyota | 1:33.426 |
| 26 | 41 | Cole Custer | Stewart-Haas Racing Ford | 1:33.428 |
| 27 | 24 | William Byron | Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet | 1:33.458 |
| 28 | 10 | Ty Dillon | Kaulig Racing Chevrolet | 1:33.595 |
| 29 | 48 | Alex Bowman | Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet | 1:33.604 |
| 30 | 6 | Brad Keselowski | RFK Racing Ford | 1:33.707 |
| 31 | 20 | Christopher Bell | JGR Toyota | 1:33.720 |
| 32 | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | Legacy Motor Club Toyota | 1:34.058 |
| 33 | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | JTG Daugherty Racing Chevrolet | 1:34.152 |
| 34 | 51 | Cody Ware | Rick Ware Racing Ford | 1:34.213 |
| 35 | 4 | Noah Gragson | Stewart-Haas Racing Ford | 1:34.416 |
| 36 | 11 | Martin Truex Jr. | JGR Toyota | 1:34.624 |
| 37 | 78 | Katherine Legge | Live Fast Motorsports Chevrolet | 1:35.468 |
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